The Generating New Probability Theorems
The purpose of this article is to generate new theorems of probability and to find out some applications of these theorems. In this case, suppose that we have a covered basket that contains many dices. In many blind tests, we will reach in and pull out a dice and set it on the table on one row from left to right. It is clear, each dice has six events (choices) including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
What is the application of these theorems (1 and 2)?
Let me again refer to my article of “A Template for Financial Section of a Business Plan (Con)” posted here.
If you want to test these theorems and see real application of these theorems in the field of financial management, you should select 10, 20, 50 or more companies and apply these theorems on growth rate of sales and costs or amount of sales and costs in the sequential years, quarters and so on.
Here, I have bought an example for 20 company that I have covered the names. You can follow me as follows:
- Step 1: Select 20 companies in different industries
- Step 2: Go to Google finance and search name of each company
- Step 3: For each company click on Financials (left side of page)
- Step 4: Copy total revenue and cost of revenue for five sequential period of 13 weeks and paste on excel spreadsheet
- Step 5: Calculate growth rate for total revenue and cost of revenue
- Step 6: Calculate the function of theorem (2) for two sequential period of 13 weeks and compare it with third sequential period of 13 weeks
- Step 7: Calculate the probability
You can review the continuation of these articles on below links:
Theorem (1): Rule of fifty plus (50 %+)
The rule of 50 %+ says to us that there is a probability more than 50% to predict the assumptions.
I start this theorem by using three dices. At the first, I pull out one dice from basket then second dice and finally third dice and set them on the table on one row from left to right.
The question is: What is the probability for number of third dice less than or equal to average of numbers first and second dices?
Click here for details.
Theorem (2): Rule of sixty plus (60 %+)
The rule of 60 %+ says to us that there is a probability more than 60% to predict the assumptions.
I start theorem (2) just like theorem (1) by using three dices but I change the function to a Transcendental function. I used Algebraic function for theorem (1).
Click here for details.